Flood & Hurricane Risk in Frederick
Frederick's own hazard profile is a real, genuine exception to the Chesapeake Bay-coastal-flooding story that defines Maryland's other markets: Frederick sits well inland with zero coastal exposure, but Frederick County recorded the most tornadoes of any Maryland county since 1950, and the Monocacy River carries its own real, separate, documented flood risk.
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Learn moreNo Coastal or Chesapeake Bay Exposure -- A Genuine Exception Within This Project's Maryland Markets
Unlike the Chesapeake Bay-and-Atlantic-coastal flooding profile documented as Maryland's defining hazard in marylandMarketManifest.js, Frederick sits well inland, with zero coastal or Bay exposure of any kind -- a real, genuine exception this record states plainly relative to Maryland's Eastern Shore, Baltimore, and DC-suburb markets built elsewhere in this project.
Frederick County Carries a Real, County-Leading Tornado Frequency in Maryland
Frederick County recorded 39 tornadoes since 1950 -- the highest count of any Maryland county, accounting for approximately 8.4% of all statewide tornado events -- with 104 tornadoes recorded within 25 miles of Frederick city itself (2 violent EF3+, 20 injuries, zero fatalities in that radius since 1950). Tornado frequency has real, documented increased in recent decades: just 4 in the 1950s versus 22 in the 1990s and 17 already in the 2020s (a partial decade), with June the peak month.
A Real, Documented Fatal Tornado Struck Frederick City Directly in 1929
Despite zero fatalities within 25 miles since 1950, a real F3 tornado struck Frederick city directly in 1929, killing 2 and injuring 8 -- the deadliest tornado on record in the city itself. This record states this historical fact plainly rather than letting the more recent zero-fatality statistic imply the city has never experienced a fatal tornado.
The Monocacy River's Real, Separate Riverine Flood Risk
Beyond tornado risk, approximately 11% of the City of Frederick sits in or near the Monocacy River's 100-year floodplain, with a flood stage of 15 feet. The largest flood on record -- caused by Tropical Storm Agnes on June 23, 1972 -- reached 35.90 feet at the Monocacy Blvd. gauge, the worst flood in the city's documented history. Carroll Creek's own real historic flooding is the documented reason the city built the flood-control project that now anchors Carroll Creek Park downtown.
No Meaningful Hurricane-Landfall, Seismic, or Wildfire Risk
Frederick carries no meaningful direct hurricane-landfall risk (its inland location genuinely reduces storm-surge exposure relative to coastal Maryland), sits outside direct New Madrid Seismic Zone exposure, and carries no meaningful wildfire risk -- three real, genuine simplifications relative to several other markets built elsewhere in this project, even as Frederick's own real, documented tornado and riverine flood risks remain genuine considerations.
Key takeaways
- Frederick sits well inland with zero coastal or Chesapeake Bay exposure -- a real, genuine exception to Maryland's typical coastal-flooding hazard story.
- Frederick County recorded the most tornadoes of any Maryland county since 1950 (39, or 8.4% of statewide events), with tornado frequency increasing in recent decades.
- A real F3 tornado struck Frederick city directly in 1929, killing 2 -- the deadliest tornado on record here, despite zero fatalities within 25 miles since 1950.
- Approximately 11% of Frederick sits in or near the Monocacy River's 100-year floodplain; the 1972 Tropical Storm Agnes flood remains the worst on record.
- Frederick carries no meaningful hurricane-landfall, seismic, or wildfire risk.
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